V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Inactive
Last recorded values (Friday, August 28th, 2026):
1 Day
149.58%
1 Week
149.58%
1 Month
149.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 5.78 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 88.7860 | 0.05 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9845 | 0.28 |
| νDF | 5.7849 | 0.03 |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 88.7860 | 0.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9845 | 0.28 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7849 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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