Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
149.20%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
149.20%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
149.20%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 88.3308 | 0.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9799 | 0.97 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3899 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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