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V-Lab

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

151.29%

decreased by 9.74%

1 Week

150.67%

decreased by 10.36%

1 Month

150.18%

decreased by 10.85%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
2.34**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1131
4.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5820
5.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1536
-0.83
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.83***

Persistence:

0.675

Half-life:

2 days