V-Lab
Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
37.39%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Week
38.57%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
42.61%
increased by 3.90%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0636 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1131 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8786 | 86.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6136 | 7.58*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 3.18*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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