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V-Lab

Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

37.39%

decreased by 1.32%

1 Week

38.57%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

42.61%

increased by 3.90%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 3, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0636
5.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1131
8.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8786
86.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6136
7.58***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
3.18***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

20 days