V-Lab
Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
39.16%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Week
39.54%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Month
40.78%
decreased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2346 | 7.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0864 | 3.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8390 | 68.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0922 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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