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V-Lab

Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

39.16%

decreased by 2.19%

1 Week

39.54%

decreased by 1.81%

1 Month

40.78%

decreased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 3, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2346
7.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0864
3.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8390
68.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0922
1.67*

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days