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V-Lab

Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

52.29%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Week

50.68%

decreased by 3.14%

1 Month

47.15%

decreased by 6.67%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 3, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7451
34.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0868
6.53***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3139
1.07
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3707
0.49
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6186
1.07

Persistence:

0.788

Half-life:

3 days