V-Lab
Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
52.29%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
50.68%
decreased by 3.14%
1 Month
47.15%
decreased by 6.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7451 | 34.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0868 | 6.53*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3139 | 1.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3707 | 0.49 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6186 | 1.07 |
Persistence:
0.788
Half-life:
3 days
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