V-Lab
Yieldmax Trgt 12 SMC OPT ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
52.44%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
55.01%
increased by 2.08%
1 Month
58.13%
increased by 5.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5789 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 1.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7014 | 5.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -19.2917 | -2.71*** |
| γ2 | 30.9714 | 3.09*** |
| γ3 | -13.0293 | -2.66*** |
| γ4 | -1.0655 | -0.35 |
Persistence:
0.791
Half-life:
3 days
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