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V-Lab

Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

8.06%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

8.46%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

9.84%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0249
27.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0806
18.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9095
288.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-14.86***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0379
34.62***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days