V-Lab
Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
8.06%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
8.46%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
9.84%
increased by 1.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0249 | 27.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0806 | 18.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9095 | 288.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -14.86*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0379 | 34.62*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
Other Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs