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Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

10.69%

increased by 0.54%

1 Week

10.92%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

11.73%

increased by 1.58%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0425
7.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1051
31.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9826
396.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.8714
5.34***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

39 days