V-Lab
Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
10.69%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
10.92%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
11.73%
increased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0425 | 7.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1051 | 31.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9826 | 396.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.8714 | 5.34*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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