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V-Lab

Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

9.74%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

10.13%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

11.26%

increased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1870
38.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8704
215.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1870
-37.13***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0020
4.87***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0113
6.81***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9860
463.98***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days