V-Lab
Horizons Beta Invr Sp/Tsx 60 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
10.69%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
11.02%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
11.97%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3853 | 8.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1166 | 6.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8416 | 48.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0196 | 3.52*** |
| γ2 | -0.0234 | -3.30*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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