V-Lab
Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF High Dividend ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
10.55%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
10.63%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
10.66%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5887 | 2.25** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0111 | 0.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2753 | 0.88 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -60.63*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 5.64*** |
Persistence:
0.282
Half-life:
1 days
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