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V-Lab

Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF High Dividend ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

10.55%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

10.63%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

10.66%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF High Dividend ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 14, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5887
2.25**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0111
0.55
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2753
0.88
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-60.63***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
5.64***

Persistence:

0.282

Half-life:

1 days