V-Lab
Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF High Dividend ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
8.35%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
8.34%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
8.34%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3921 | 4.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9901 | 0.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 21.0898 | 0.20 |
| γ2 | -38.4309 | -0.49 |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3921 | 4.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9901 | 0.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 21.0898 | 0.20 |
| γ2 | -38.4309 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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