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V-Lab
V-Lab

Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF High Dividend ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

8.35%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

8.34%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

8.34%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF High Dividend ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 14, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3921
4.58***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9901
0.26
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ121.0898
0.20
γ2-38.4309
-0.49

0.990

Persistence

69d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3921
4.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9901
0.26
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ121.0898
0.20
γ2-38.4309
-0.49

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days