V-Lab
iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
7.05%
increased by 0.28%
1 Week
7.92%
increased by 1.15%
1 Month
8.11%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 124% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6121 | 6.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1913 | 8.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6675 | 9.45*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.147
Half-life:
0 days
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