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V-Lab

iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

7.05%

increased by 0.28%

1 Week

7.92%

increased by 1.15%

1 Month

8.11%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 10, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 124% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6121
6.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1913
8.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6675
9.45***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.96***

Persistence:

0.147

Half-life:

0 days