V-Lab
iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.20%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
4.90%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
11.96%
increased by 7.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0236 | 1.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9673 | 92.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0072 | -0.63 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0344 | 0.46 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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