V-Lab
iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.44%
increased by 0.96%
1 Week
4.18%
increased by 0.70%
1 Month
4.09%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 84.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -86.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0150 | 3.15*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9382 | 93.14*** |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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