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V-Lab

iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

4.44%

increased by 0.96%

1 Week

4.18%

increased by 0.70%

1 Month

4.09%

increased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 10, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
84.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.03
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-86.42***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0150
3.15***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9382
93.14***

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days