V-Lab
iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6.14%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
5.56%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
4.44%
decreased by 2.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 20% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0435 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3414 | 14.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6231 | 26.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1809 | 4.61*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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