V-Lab
TD Q Canadian Dividend ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
7.65%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
8.31%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
10.16%
increased by 2.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.62 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0360 | 20.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 10.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8440 | 131.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7368 | 9.48*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6246 | 21.02*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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