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V-Lab

TD Q Canadian Dividend ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

7.65%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

8.31%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

10.16%

increased by 2.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of TD Q Canadian Dividend ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.62 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0360
20.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0993
10.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8440
131.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7368
9.48***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6246
21.02***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days