V-Lab
TD Q Canadian Dividend ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
7.54%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
8.13%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
9.70%
increased by 2.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9092 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1606 | 5.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7949 | 24.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0057 | 0.77 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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