V-Lab
TD Q Canadian Dividend ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
7.81%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
8.54%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
9.86%
increased by 1.94%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7630 | 105.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2434 | 29.17*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2635 | 0.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5020 | 0.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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