Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
145.94%
decreased by 13.98%
1 Week
150.04%
decreased by 9.88%
1 Month
152.65%
decreased by 7.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9174 | 4.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1397 | 1.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4675 | 1.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.4457 | -0.42 |
Persistence:
0.607
Half-life:
1 days
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