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V-Lab

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

131.59%

decreased by 25.85%

1 Week

137.15%

decreased by 20.29%

1 Month

142.86%

decreased by 14.58%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -5.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.0000
4.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2318
7.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5166
59.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-5.1302
-9.62***

Persistence:

0.748

Half-life:

2 days