Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
131.59%
decreased by 25.85%
1 Week
137.15%
decreased by 20.29%
1 Month
142.86%
decreased by 14.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -5.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2318 | 7.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5166 | 59.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -5.1302 | -9.62*** |
Persistence:
0.748
Half-life:
2 days
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