V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Last recorded values (Friday, August 28th, 2026):
1 Day
99.39%
1 Week
88.21%
1 Month
62.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0556 | 0.49 |
| αARCH | 0.3051 | 2.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6949 | 10.51*** |
| γleverage | -0.0148 | -0.09 |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 0.34 |
0.946
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0556 | 0.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3051 | 2.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6949 | 10.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0148 | -0.09 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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