Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
97.45%
increased by 3.71%
1 Week
89.96%
decreased by 3.78%
1 Month
69.73%
decreased by 24.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0357 | 1.82* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1988 | 10.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8012 | 60.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0143 | 0.22 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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