V-Lab
Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.51%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
22.27%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
24.89%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 55% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.38 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0697 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1328 | 5.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8672 | 43.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1584 | 2.37** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3808 | 10.33*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
Other Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on ETFs