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V-Lab

Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

25.10%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Week

25.23%

decreased by 1.96%

1 Month

25.69%

decreased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1176
3.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0753
25.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9782
298.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8503
17.02***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days