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Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

21.26%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

21.45%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

22.00%

increased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 3.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1489
0.87
αARCH0.0878
2.60***
βGARCH0.9524
37.09***
νDF3.2003
1.61

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1489
0.87
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0878
2.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9524
37.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2003
1.61

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days