V-Lab
Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.06%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
20.39%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
21.34%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1878 | 3.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 10.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9532 | 143.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1556 | 6.60*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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