Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

19.06%

decreased by 1.67%

1 Week

19.45%

decreased by 1.28%

1 Month

20.56%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 3.24 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1026
0.90
αARCH0.0874
2.62***
βGARCH0.9527
39.71***
νDF3.2413
1.60

0.953

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1026
0.90
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0874
2.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9527
39.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2413
1.60

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days