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V-Lab

Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

20.06%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

20.39%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Month

21.34%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1878
3.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0867
10.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9532
143.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1556
6.60***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days