V-Lab
Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.06%
decreased by 1.67%
1 Week
19.45%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
20.56%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 3.24 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1026 | 0.90 |
| αARCH | 0.0874 | 2.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9527 | 39.71*** |
| νDF | 3.2413 | 1.60 |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1026 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0874 | 2.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9527 | 39.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2413 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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