V-Lab
Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
12.40%
increased by 0.61%
1 Week
11.39%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
10.72%
decreased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2023 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3933 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1637 | 2.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4293 | 2.08** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -12.0828 | -1.22 |
| γ2 | 14.0385 | 0.99 |
| γ3 | 1.3470 | 0.15 |
| γ4 | -8.8725 | -0.85 |
| γ5 | 22.3177 | 1.68* |
| γ6 | -46.0491 | -3.07*** |
| γ7 | 69.3715 | 4.66*** |
| γ8 | -80.5526 | -5.22*** |
| γ9 | 57.8800 | 4.53*** |
| γ10 | -27.7139 | -2.10** |
Persistence:
0.593
Half-life:
1 days
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