V-Lab
Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.29%
1 Week
27.60%
1 Month
46.50%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
AMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6948 | 3.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.3662 | 1.48 |
| βGARCH | 0.2144 | 2.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.8388 | 1.16 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeAMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6948 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3662 | 1.48 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2144 | 2.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8388 | 1.16 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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