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V-Lab

Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

15.39%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

16.21%

increased by 0.31%

1 Month

16.74%

increased by 0.84%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3962
3.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1589
2.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4644
2.33**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-11.5858
-1.15
γ213.4134
0.93
γ31.4091
0.15
γ4-8.5340
-0.81
γ521.5102
1.61
γ6-44.7329
-2.97***
γ767.7164
4.54***
γ8-78.2720
-4.99***
γ952.9016
4.30***
γ10-12.2340
-1.79*

Persistence:

0.623

Half-life:

1 days