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V-Lab
V-Lab

Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

16.95%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Week

17.06%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Month

17.14%

decreased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4016
3.72***
αARCH0.1597
2.99***
βGARCH0.4758
2.51**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-11.1893
-1.13
γ212.9854
0.91
γ31.2584
0.14
γ4-7.6001
-0.77
γ518.9868
1.51
γ6-40.7812
-2.78***
γ764.4718
4.30***
γ8-79.3152
-5.01***
γ959.0225
4.41***
γ10-18.1045
-2.53**

0.636

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4016
3.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1597
2.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4758
2.51**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-11.1893
-1.13
γ212.9854
0.91
γ31.2584
0.14
γ4-7.6001
-0.77
γ518.9868
1.51
γ6-40.7812
-2.78***
γ764.4718
4.30***
γ8-79.3152
-5.01***
γ959.0225
4.41***
γ10-18.1045
-2.53**

Persistence:

0.636

Half-life:

2 days