V-Lab
Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.46%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
15.50%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
16.20%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4034 | 3.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1591 | 2.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4769 | 2.52** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -11.2269 | -1.14 |
| γ2 | 13.0501 | 0.92 |
| γ3 | 1.1989 | 0.14 |
| γ4 | -7.5276 | -0.76 |
| γ5 | 18.8855 | 1.50 |
| γ6 | -40.6152 | -2.77*** |
| γ7 | 64.1649 | 4.29*** |
| γ8 | -78.7071 | -5.00*** |
| γ9 | 57.9018 | 4.40*** |
| γ10 | -16.9640 | -2.56** |
0.636
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4034 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1591 | 2.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4769 | 2.52** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -11.2269 | -1.14 |
| γ2 | 13.0501 | 0.92 |
| γ3 | 1.1989 | 0.14 |
| γ4 | -7.5276 | -0.76 |
| γ5 | 18.8855 | 1.50 |
| γ6 | -40.6152 | -2.77*** |
| γ7 | 64.1649 | 4.29*** |
| γ8 | -78.7071 | -5.00*** |
| γ9 | 57.9018 | 4.40*** |
| γ10 | -16.9640 | -2.56** |
Persistence:
0.636
Half-life:
2 days
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