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V-Lab
V-Lab

Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.46%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

15.50%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

16.20%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4034
3.72***
αARCH0.1591
2.99***
βGARCH0.4769
2.52**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-11.2269
-1.14
γ213.0501
0.92
γ31.1989
0.14
γ4-7.5276
-0.76
γ518.8855
1.50
γ6-40.6152
-2.77***
γ764.1649
4.29***
γ8-78.7071
-5.00***
γ957.9018
4.40***
γ10-16.9640
-2.56**

0.636

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4034
3.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1591
2.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4769
2.52**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-11.2269
-1.14
γ213.0501
0.92
γ31.1989
0.14
γ4-7.5276
-0.76
γ518.8855
1.50
γ6-40.6152
-2.77***
γ764.1649
4.29***
γ8-78.7071
-5.00***
γ957.9018
4.40***
γ10-16.9640
-2.56**

Persistence:

0.636

Half-life:

2 days