V-Lab
Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
16.95%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
17.06%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
17.14%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4016 | 3.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1597 | 2.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4758 | 2.51** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -11.1893 | -1.13 |
| γ2 | 12.9854 | 0.91 |
| γ3 | 1.2584 | 0.14 |
| γ4 | -7.6001 | -0.77 |
| γ5 | 18.9868 | 1.51 |
| γ6 | -40.7812 | -2.78*** |
| γ7 | 64.4718 | 4.30*** |
| γ8 | -79.3152 | -5.01*** |
| γ9 | 59.0225 | 4.41*** |
| γ10 | -18.1045 | -2.53** |
0.636
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4016 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1597 | 2.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4758 | 2.51** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -11.1893 | -1.13 |
| γ2 | 12.9854 | 0.91 |
| γ3 | 1.2584 | 0.14 |
| γ4 | -7.6001 | -0.77 |
| γ5 | 18.9868 | 1.51 |
| γ6 | -40.7812 | -2.78*** |
| γ7 | 64.4718 | 4.30*** |
| γ8 | -79.3152 | -5.01*** |
| γ9 | 59.0225 | 4.41*** |
| γ10 | -18.1045 | -2.53** |
Persistence:
0.636
Half-life:
2 days
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