V-Lab
Simplify NXT Intang Core IDX Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.07%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
15.40%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
16.16%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7004 | 5.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1372 | 2.26** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7790 | 11.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2123 | -0.70 |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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