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V-Lab

Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

5.53%

increased by 1.40%

1 Week

4.74%

increased by 0.61%

1 Month

4.07%

decreased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 10, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.23) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0103
6.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1951
8.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4462
10.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2297
10.31***

Persistence:

0.641

Half-life:

2 days