V-Lab
Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
5.53%
increased by 1.40%
1 Week
4.74%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
4.07%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.23) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0103 | 6.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1951 | 8.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4462 | 10.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2297 | 10.31*** |
Persistence:
0.641
Half-life:
2 days
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