V-Lab
Betapro Nasdaq-100 -2X D ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
36.08%
1 Week
36.96%
1 Month
39.89%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0951 | 24.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1014 | 27.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8895 | 267.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.8633 | -17.45*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9782 | 26.77*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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