Betapro Nasdaq-100 -2X D ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
91.34%
1 Week
88.12%
1 Month
78.41%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2008 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.2353 | 11.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8211 | 45.40*** |
| γleverage | -0.2353 | -11.30*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1122 | 1.25 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0553 | 1.38 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9281 | 18.11*** |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2353 | 11.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8211 | 45.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2353 | -11.30*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1122 | 1.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0553 | 1.38 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9281 | 18.11*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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