V-Lab
Betapro Nasdaq-100 -2X D ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
35.39%
1 Week
36.69%
1 Month
40.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2008 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.2349 | 11.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8195 | 44.68*** |
| γleverage | -0.2349 | -11.20*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1128 | 1.26 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0560 | 1.40 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9270 | 18.04*** |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2349 | 11.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8195 | 44.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2349 | -11.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1128 | 1.26 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0560 | 1.40 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9270 | 18.04*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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