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Betapro Nasdaq-100 -2X D ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

35.39%

increased by 3.02%

1 Week

36.69%

increased by 4.32%

1 Month

40.32%

increased by 7.95%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC

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graph of Betapro Nasdaq-100 -2X D ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2008 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.2349
11.26***
βGARCH0.8195
44.68***
γleverage-0.2349
-11.20***
λ₁tau intercept0.1128
1.26
λ₂forecast adj.0.0560
1.40
λ₃tau persistence0.9270
18.04***

0.937

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2349
11.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8195
44.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2349
-11.20***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1128
1.26
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0560
1.40
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9270
18.04***

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days