Betapro Nasdaq-100 -2X D ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
43.78%
decreased by 3.45%
1 Week
43.83%
decreased by 3.40%
1 Month
44.02%
decreased by 3.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2008 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 43-day half-lifev = 8.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 8.2609 | 1.59 |
| αscore | 0.1021 | 6.15*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9842 | 89.57*** |
| νDF | 8.1245 | 1.17 |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 8.2609 | 1.59 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1021 | 6.15*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9842 | 89.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1245 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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