V-Lab
Putnam BDC Income ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
21.53%
increased by 2.96%
1 Week
21.26%
increased by 2.69%
1 Month
20.47%
increased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.43 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0541 | 13.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1002 | 11.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8536 | 73.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7889 | 8.55*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4349 | 9.81*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
Other Putnam BDC Income ETF Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs