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V-Lab

Putnam BDC Income ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

21.53%

increased by 2.96%

1 Week

21.26%

increased by 2.69%

1 Month

20.47%

increased by 1.90%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Putnam BDC Income ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.43 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0541
13.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1002
11.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8536
73.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7889
8.55***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4349
9.81***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days