V-Lab
Putnam BDC Income ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
16.93%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
20.05%
increased by 2.90%
1 Month
22.35%
increased by 5.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0359 | 5.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3520 | 16.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4924 | 20.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0267 | 2.04** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3620 | 9.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6380 | 12.19*** |
Persistence:
0.634
Half-life:
2 days
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