Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

13.61%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

13.61%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

13.61%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9846
4.40***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9803
21.01***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0634
-0.31

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9846
4.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9803
21.01***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0634
-0.31

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days