V-Lab
Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.11%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
14.35%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
14.40%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7582 | 9.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0431 | 0.79 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5838 | -2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.043
Half-life:
0 days
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