V-Lab
Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
10.51%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
10.93%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
12.02%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The leverage effect is captured by the negative gamma (gamma = -0.1417), confirming that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks of equal magnitude.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0275 | -0.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0020 | 0.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9158 | 17.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1417 | -10.34*** |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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