V-Lab
Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.01%
1 Week
13.95%
1 Month
13.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 1.60 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0417 | 0.68 |
| αARCH | 0.0339 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8997 | 8.21*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
| δpower | 1.6020 | 1.67* |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0417 | 0.68 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0339 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8997 | 8.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6020 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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