Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

14.01%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

13.95%

increased by 0.44%

1 Month

13.76%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 1.60 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifeδ = 1.60 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0417
0.68
αARCH0.0339
0.00
βGARCH0.8997
8.21***
γleverage1.0000
0.00
δpower1.6020
1.67*

0.945

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0417
0.68
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0339
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8997
8.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.00
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6020
1.67*

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days