V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
3.48%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
3.48%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
3.48%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1483 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9796 | 12.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 2.7622 | 4.47*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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