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V-Lab

Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

3.48%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

3.48%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

3.48%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1483
4.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9796
12.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ12.7622
4.47***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days