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V-Lab

Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

2.32%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

2.31%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.31%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 54 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0851
4.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9871
2.57**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.4896
-0.01
γ27.6639
0.22
γ3-11.7545
-0.92

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days