V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
2.31%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
2.31%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.31%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3453 | 7.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9906 | 7.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 6.0806 | 0.66 |
| γ2 | -8.0538 | -0.70 |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3453 | 7.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9906 | 7.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 6.0806 | 0.66 |
| γ2 | -8.0538 | -0.70 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
Other Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs