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Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

2.34%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

2.35%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

2.35%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4418
6.81***
αARCH0.0323
0.68
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ14.8317
5.42***
γ2-6.3650
-5.61***

0.032

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4418
6.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0323
0.68
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ14.8317
5.42***
γ2-6.3650
-5.61***

Persistence:

0.032

Half-life:

0 days