Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
2.34%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
2.35%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
2.35%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4418 | 6.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0323 | 0.68 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 4.8317 | 5.42*** |
| γ2 | -6.3650 | -5.61*** |
0.032
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4418 | 6.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0323 | 0.68 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 4.8317 | 5.42*** |
| γ2 | -6.3650 | -5.61*** |
Persistence:
0.032
Half-life:
0 days
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