Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
2.83%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
2.83%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
2.83%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1660 | 4.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9907 | 3.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 4.7213 | 0.60 |
| γ2 | -6.4657 | -0.64 |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1660 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9907 | 3.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 4.7213 | 0.60 |
| γ2 | -6.4657 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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