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Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

2.83%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

2.83%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

2.83%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1660
4.07***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9907
3.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ14.7213
0.60
γ2-6.4657
-0.64

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1660
4.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9907
3.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ14.7213
0.60
γ2-6.4657
-0.64

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days