V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
2.32%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
2.31%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.31%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 54 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0851 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9871 | 2.57** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.4896 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 7.6639 | 0.22 |
| γ3 | -11.7545 | -0.92 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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