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Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.55%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

2.55%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

2.55%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 203 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1088
3.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9966
0.92
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ11.3104
0.03
γ25.1107
0.36
γ3-10.7388
-2.03**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

203 days