V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.55%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
2.55%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
2.55%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 203 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1088 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9966 | 0.92 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 1.3104 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | 5.1107 | 0.36 |
| γ3 | -10.7388 | -2.03** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
203 days
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