V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
31.17%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
31.43%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
32.26%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8351 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1127 | 4.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8591 | 28.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.3185 | -1.67* |
| γ2 | 0.7962 | 1.83* |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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