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V-Lab

Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

31.17%

increased by 0.15%

1 Week

31.43%

increased by 0.41%

1 Month

32.26%

increased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

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graph of Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8351
3.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1127
4.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8591
28.43***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.3185
-1.67*
γ20.7962
1.83*

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days