V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.63%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
19.63%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
19.63%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. The volatility power δ = 1.42 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0422 | 12.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0889 | 0.23 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8680 | 98.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.16 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4223 | 20.99*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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