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V-Lab

Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

19.63%

increased by 0.15%

1 Week

19.63%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

19.63%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. The volatility power δ = 1.42 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0422
12.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0889
0.23
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8680
98.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.16
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4223
20.99***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days