V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.28%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
18.33%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
18.47%
decreased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0287 | 2.56** |
| αARCH | 0.1184 | 4.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8623 | 31.63*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0287 | 2.56** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1184 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8623 | 31.63*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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