Skip to main content
V-Lab

Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

35.46%

decreased by 3.23%

1 Week

33.88%

decreased by 4.81%

1 Month

30.34%

decreased by 8.35%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8152
70.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2183
19.58***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0257
2.96***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1023
3.63***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8775
25.52***

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days