V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.52%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
22.45%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
24.94%
increased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8105 | 71.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2288 | 20.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0252 | 3.02*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1028 | 3.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8789 | 27.07*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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