V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.14%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Week
23.60%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
24.40%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8078 | 70.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2328 | 20.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0262 | 3.06*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0971 | 3.71*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8828 | 27.37*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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