Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
35.46%
decreased by 3.23%
1 Week
33.88%
decreased by 4.81%
1 Month
30.34%
decreased by 8.35%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8152 | 70.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2183 | 19.58*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0257 | 2.96*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1023 | 3.63*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8775 | 25.52*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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