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V-Lab

Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

3.95%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

3.95%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

3.95%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2295
3.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7934
0.37
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ145.7744
3.72***
γ2-68.9739
-3.91***
γ317.9062
1.18

Persistence:

0.793

Half-life:

3 days