V-Lab
Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
17.52%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
17.52%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
17.52%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 27.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2178 | 0.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9620 | 0.06 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 27.8471 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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