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Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

17.52%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

17.52%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

17.52%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Pacer S&P M 400 Q FCF AR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 27.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2178
0.03
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9620
0.06
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

27.8471
0.00

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days