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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

41.60%

increased by 17.62%

1 Week

40.36%

increased by 16.38%

1 Month

37.80%

increased by 13.82%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 2.58 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
3.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1497
4.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5481
14.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5901
11.84***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.5762
6.51***

Persistence:

0.874

Half-life:

5 days