CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
30.13%
1 Week
31.54%
1 Month
35.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 2.57 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6402 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.2380 | 2.37** |
| βGARCH | 0.5690 | 4.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.3395 | 2.96*** |
| δpower | 2.5706 | 1.82* |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6402 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2380 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5690 | 4.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3395 | 2.96*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.5706 | 1.82* |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
Other CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on ETFs