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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

38.04%

decreased by 1.79%

1 Week

37.84%

decreased by 1.99%

1 Month

37.12%

decreased by 2.71%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.76 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0521
4.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1243
14.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8684
73.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1157
2.68***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7625
9.74***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days