CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
38.04%
decreased by 1.79%
1 Week
37.84%
decreased by 1.99%
1 Month
37.12%
decreased by 2.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.76 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0521 | 4.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1243 | 14.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8684 | 73.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1157 | 2.68*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7625 | 9.74*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
Other CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs