V-Lab
CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
21.40%
increased by 1.99%
1 Week
21.71%
increased by 2.30%
1 Month
22.75%
increased by 3.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0656 | 1.39 |
| αARCH | 0.1234 | 3.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8561 | 18.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.1105 | 0.68 |
| δpower | 1.9198 | 2.64*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0656 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1234 | 3.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8561 | 18.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1105 | 0.68 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9198 | 2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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