V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
20.69%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
20.55%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
20.05%
decreased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0216 | 18.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1028 | 20.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8819 | 256.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0084 | -1.14 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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