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V-Lab

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

51.87%

decreased by 2.93%

1 Week

52.72%

decreased by 2.08%

1 Month

55.29%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5927
2.13**
αARCH0.1201
2.16**
βGARCH0.8416
16.24***

0.962

Persistence

18d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5927
2.13**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1201
2.16**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8416
16.24***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days