V-Lab
Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
45.68%
increased by 2.55%
1 Week
50.68%
increased by 7.55%
1 Month
56.22%
increased by 13.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 2024 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6371 | 3.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2601 | 4.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5484 | 5.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2358 | -1.79* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7307 | 4.00*** |
Persistence:
0.755
Half-life:
2 days
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