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V-Lab

Tradr 2X SNDK Long Daily ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

170.96%

decreased by 4.64%

1 Week

179.40%

increased by 3.80%

1 Month

199.56%

increased by 23.96%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X SNDK Long Daily ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 0.93 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifeδ = 0.93 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
0.33
αARCH0.0794
1.38
βGARCH0.8508
7.92***
γleverage0.2492
0.32
δpower0.9259
0.80

0.914

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
0.33
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0794
1.38
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8508
7.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2492
0.32
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9259
0.80

Persistence:

0.914

Half-life:

8 days