V-Lab
Tradr 2X SNDK Long Daily ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
170.96%
1 Week
179.40%
1 Month
199.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 0.93 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.33 |
| αARCH | 0.0794 | 1.38 |
| βGARCH | 0.8508 | 7.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.2492 | 0.32 |
| δpower | 0.9259 | 0.80 |
0.914
Persistence8d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 1.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8508 | 7.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2492 | 0.32 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9259 | 0.80 |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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